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> Psychics, What's your thoughts on them
sweetpea
post 28th Nov 2011, 07:32pm
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hi proudmaryhiller and all
dont try to explain things that happen
our loved one,s do have their way in giving
a message ,and it cannot be explained never doubt
what may happen,
have you ever went into a room and something not quite
the way you left it ,
when I give someone news and they ask how did you know
that, I cant answer and anyone who uses the gift for money
that gift will be lost to them,
always show compassion and kindness ,at times this is hard
as things are sent to try us,


bless all
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TeeHeeHee
post 28th Nov 2011, 11:12pm
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Dave your post has been on my mind all day.
What a terrible to happen to your brother and your cousin's son. I do emphasise with them.
I considered the same end for the same reason.
I have absolutely no idea who my ancestors are and for that reason my children were (and still are) the most important parts of my existence. My wife knew that the only way she could hurt me was through my children and did everything she could to destroy what we had between us, She succeeded with my only son (11 years at that time) and it's taken us almost 30 years to put a "patch" on the relationship. My solution at the end was to dispatch her with extreme predudice but I couldn't lay that on my kids either so I left England to save them the shame.
Funnily enough the divorce papers; which I received abroad, were finalised exactly one week prior to what would have been our 13th anniversaire ... something spiritual about that I always thought.
10 grandkids and two great grandkids later she's still a vindictive mental case (*) who hardly sees hide nor hair of them ... they hide from her when they see her on the street.

(* She once insisted that the psychiatrist handling her case be changed because after interviewing me he told her he thought I was quite a nice guy )

One thing for sure, she didn't get a red cent out of me at the divorce hearing.
Sorry it's not on topic but I had to get that off my chest tonight.

I'm not a believer in any form; I either know something or I can be persuaded to accept something if I think the case is strong enough for me to accept. Belief or faith or trust are not my persuasion. Even in my personal relationship with Mary, for example, ask me if I trust her. The answer is no; I know her. She knows me. That's enough.
I once experienced the "Tunnel of Light" journey where I was being welcomed by a very dear friend (my ex-wife's father as it happens) who'd died a short while before.
I don't know if that was spiritual or if it was a natural reaction of the brain in a near death experience; the other explanation given, so maybe/maybe not but, contrary to what some might believe of me, I'll keep an open mind while reserving judgement on those who claim to be "in touch" with the spirit world.


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"Destiny is a good thing to accept when it's going your way. When it isn't, don't call it destiny; call it injustice, treachery, or simple bad luck.”
― Joseph Heller, God Knows
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proudmaryhiller
post 29th Nov 2011, 02:05am
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Hi Sweetpea, howya doin, totally agree with you.

Tee, so sorry to hear all that has happened to you, truly awful. Nasty people hopefully will get whats coming to them. Wot goes around...


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sweetpea
post 29th Nov 2011, 09:46am
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hi all,
tee read your post I do understand that
some people believe some dont, last year I was in
hospital and my family told not to hold much hope,
Im here and lived to tell the tale,
was asked why I never would further my gift and the
answer is I dont want to,
you have had a terrible time but now gifted with your
grandchildren and great grandchildren what ah blessing
dave its true what goes round comes around
people who are nasty will have a lonely life

god bless all
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Alex MacPhee
post 29th Nov 2011, 06:55pm
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QUOTE (benny @ 26th Nov 2011, 09:33pm) *
Most of the evidence is anecdotal, not laboratory based, but none the worse for that.

Actually it is the worse for that. These 'psychic' powers evaporate when subjected to rigorous examination. If there were any psychic powers, it would be possible to detect them, else they're not powers at all. Since they cannot be reliably detected, reports of them are technically indistinguishable from hokum.

You can "shrug them off as coincidences", because coincidences happen a lot. In fact, what would be strangest would be if there were no coincidences at all.

I've a notion the chap tamhickey is thinking of is James Randi, amateur magician and debunker of psychic charlatans.


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Alex MacPhee
post 29th Nov 2011, 07:18pm
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QUOTE (Dave Grieve @ 26th Nov 2011, 07:29am) *
By now I was the only one standing but was still not sure he then asked me what is the significance of the numbers 4 and 4

There's an old and well-known investment scam that goes something like this.

The scammer writes a letter to about a thousand people telling them he has a sure way of predicting the stock market. To half of them he predicts that ABC Inc is going to rise in the next week, and to the other half, predicts that their shares will fall. That's all he does. He doesn't ask for anything.

The following week, he checks the share prices, and if ABC Inc has risen, he discards the half of his targets to whom he predicted a fall (and vice versa if ABC Inc falls, of course). To the remaining five hundred, he writes again, this time predicting to one half of them that DEF Inc will rise in the next week, and to the other 250 or so that DEF Inc will fall. That's all he does. He doesn't ask for anything.

He repeats the process with other listed companies, halving his audience each time, until he's whittled the original thousand down to about sixty. By this time, however, that sixty have had five 'correct' predictions in a row, one after the other. They are beginning to think 'This guy has got some good information, he's never been wrong yet'. To the remaining sixty or so, he now writes to say that he has more predictions about the market, but this time his advice is for sale. However, he's 'shown' his bona fides by having demonstrated up to half a dozen correct market predictions, without a single mistake. Let's say he says his fee for his next 'market report' is £250. The incentive is now strong to 'believe', and if even just half of the remaining sixty send him £250 for a punt on the market where it looks like they could clean up ten times that or more, he can clear seven or eight thousand pounds. He had no special knowledge at all, but used a process that makes it appear compelling that he has.

A similar psychology may be operating here, where the 'psychic' is whittling down his targets merely by the law of averages. When you are convinced the process is focussing down on you, the compulsion to believe 'there's something in it' can be very powerful, even though mistaken.





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bilbo.s
post 29th Nov 2011, 07:26pm
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Thanks for that, Alex. Busy composing my emails right now. Won´t include any GG punters of course. laugh.gif


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benny
post 29th Nov 2011, 10:20pm
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QUOTE (Alex MacPhee @ 29th Nov 2011, 07:14pm) *
Actually it is the worse for that. These 'psychic' powers evaporate when subjected to rigorous examination. If there were any psychic powers, it would be possible to detect them, else they're not powers at all. Since they cannot be reliably detected, reports of them are technically indistinguishable from hokum.

You can "shrug them off as coincidences", because coincidences happen a lot. In fact, what would be strangest would be if there were no coincidences at all.

I've a notion the chap tamhickey is thinking of is James Randi, amateur magician and debunker of psychic charlatans.



Firstly, most of the instances of "psychic" happenings in the annals of the Society for Psychical Research are not capable of "rigorous examination" in the scientific sense. They do not take place in a laboratory, nor are they reproducible on demand. They are simply episodes in the lives of individuals, for which no satisfactory logical explanation has been found, despite intensive investigation. "Coincidence" is, of course, one possible explanation for some of the cases, but many of the cases would need not a " coincidence", but a whole series of "coincidences" to act as a suitable explanation. I think we can reach a point when "coincidence" as an explanation becomes more unbelievable than what it is intended to explain.

Secondly, the statement that because something cannot be detected it therefore does not exist,is not at all a good argument. As the saying goes, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. With all his genius, Newton could not have detected the existence of cosmic rays, for example, because the apparatus required for their detection did not exist in his era. I have no doubt that there are many natural phenomena taking place all around us which we are still incapable of detecting, despite the great advances since Newton's day.


" Since they cannot be reliably detected, reports of them are technically indistinguishable from hokum." I take it you believe the current cosmological Big Bang theory to be hokum then?


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Alex MacPhee
post 29th Nov 2011, 11:14pm
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QUOTE (benny @ 29th Nov 2011, 10:39pm) *
Firstly, most of the instances of "psychic" happenings in the annals of the Society for Psychical Research are not capable of "rigorous examination" in the scientific sense. They do not take place in a laboratory, nor are they reproducible on demand.

If they're not reproducible on demand, then they are not 'powers', for there is no way to distinguish between them and mere chance. That's what it means to say something is or has a power : the ability to show a demarcation between control and chance.
QUOTE
but many of the cases would need not a " coincidence", but a whole series of "coincidences" to act as a suitable explanation. I think we can reach a point when "coincidence" as an explanation becomes more unbelievable than what it is intended to explain.

In other words, you are offering a statistical argument, whilst at the same time saying that the phenomenon is not capable of being analysed statistically!
QUOTE
Secondly, the statement that because something cannot be detected it therefore does not exist,is not at all a good argument. As the saying goes, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. With all his genius, Newton could not have detected the existence of cosmic rays, for example, because the apparatus required for their detection did not exist in his era.

This is confusing phenomenon with explanation. The claim for psychic powers is that they exist, not that they're undetectable. It is one thing to show that psychic phenomena exist, but a different issue to give an explanation of how they arise. Newton could not give an explanation of cosmic rays because he didn't know the phenomenon existed, but here, the claim is being made that psychic phenomena do exist ; therefore, it follows that they must be detectable without any logical necessity to explain how they arise. The problem here for the claim about psychic phenomena is that they can't even be shown to exist.
QUOTE
" Since they cannot be reliably detected, reports of them are technically indistinguishable from hokum." I take it you believe the current cosmological Big Bang theory to be hokum then?

Why would I believe that? The Big Bang theory has convincing evidence in measurable traces via the 4K background radiation throughout the universe. That's why it survived where the Steady State theory failed.


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Isobel
post 29th Nov 2011, 11:45pm
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Good post Alex.


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Dave Grieve
post 30th Nov 2011, 06:33am
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QUOTE (Alex MacPhee @ 29th Nov 2011, 07:37pm) *
There's an old and well-known investment scam that goes something like this.

The scammer writes a letter to about a thousand people telling them he has a sure way of predicting the stock market. To half of them he predicts that ABC Inc is going to rise in the next week, and to the other half, predicts that their shares will fall. That's all he does. He doesn't ask for anything.

The following week, he checks the share prices, and if ABC Inc has risen, he discards the half of his targets to whom he predicted a fall (and vice versa if ABC Inc falls, of course). To the remaining five hundred, he writes again, this time predicting to one half of them that DEF Inc will rise in the next week, and to the other 250 or so that DEF Inc will fall. That's all he does. He doesn't ask for anything.

He repeats the process with other listed companies, halving his audience each time, until he's whittled the original thousand down to about sixty. By this time, however, that sixty have had five 'correct' predictions in a row, one after the other. They are beginning to think 'This guy has got some good information, he's never been wrong yet'. To the remaining sixty or so, he now writes to say that he has more predictions about the market, but this time his advice is for sale. However, he's 'shown' his bona fides by having demonstrated up to half a dozen correct market predictions, without a single mistake. Let's say he says his fee for his next 'market report' is £250. The incentive is now strong to 'believe', and if even just half of the remaining sixty send him £250 for a punt on the market where it looks like they could clean up ten times that or more, he can clear seven or eight thousand pounds. He had no special knowledge at all, but used a process that makes it appear compelling that he has.

A similar psychology may be operating here, where the 'psychic' is whittling down his targets merely by the law of averages. When you are convinced the process is focussing down on you, the compulsion to believe 'there's something in it' can be very powerful, even though mistaken.


Alex away an bile yure heid and take yur cynicism wae ye ave hid anogh o yur pontifacitin and holier than thou attitude
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Alex MacPhee
post 30th Nov 2011, 10:37am
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QUOTE (Dave Grieve @ 30th Nov 2011, 06:52am) *
Alex away an bile yure heid and take yur cynicism wae ye ave hid anogh o yur pontifacitin and holier than thou attitude

Well, that's ma gas in a peep.

Happy St Andra's Day tae you tae!


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TeeHeeHee
post 30th Nov 2011, 01:28pm
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QUOTE
The scammer writes a letter ...

Well Alex, am I glad I let you post that first, you pontificating holier than thou cynic. tongue.gif
Can I take it you've heard of Morrison Cross? (Did I let myself get roped in there?)
Anyway, way back in the early 60's though I let myself be talked into attending a physic's meeting in Birmingham by my very intelligent girlfriend of that time. It started out in much the same way as described in Dave's post:
Will all those who ... with more than half the attending people rising to their feet, followed by, Those who ... and so many sitting down again.
That was when I stood.
"I'll see you in the pub across the road when this is finished", I told my girlfriend and then left.


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Alex MacPhee
post 30th Nov 2011, 03:48pm
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I hadn't heard of Morrison Cross -- I was probably too busy pontificating somewhere -- but a quick sally through the back issues of Google showed up a fair raft of FSA type warnings. You didn't get approached or scammed, did you? That never happens to us holy wullies. (OK, Prince Ndabaninge Nsotolese was down on his uppers after his father was murdered by business associates in a cocoa mine and helping him squirrel his fortune out of the country was the least I could do, being holier than a'body else and all that, but that was a special case.)

I'm racking my brains (disnae take much, as The Boss used to tell me) to remember where I read it, but there was an account in a book on this kind of thing about a well-known US psychic, whose clients included the rich and famous in US politics and showbiz, who had died. On going through his things to sort out his estate, his executors found shelves and bookcases and suitcases full of newspaper cuttings and research notes. He simply targetted those he was doing 'readings' for by ferociously going after every tidbit of background information he could find, which is an odd activity for someone who could call on the supernatural world to do the legwork for him instead. It was possibly either in a book by James Randi, or Martin Gardner (sometime writer of the Mathematical Games column in Scientific American, and like Randi, amateur conjurer).

I remember someone who went to one of those theatrical sessions by that dear old psychic con artist the late Doris Stokes. Unknown to most of the audience queueing up to get in, but not the woman I had the account from, old Doris had a number of accomplices who were planted in the queue whose job was to strike up conversations with those waiting beside them, and by didn't of crafty digging techniques, milk them for seemingly innocuous information. This was then relayed to Doris before the show started, and of course you can imagine how she worked this into the act to the astonishment of those who were completely oblivious of the casual and unremarkable 'conversations' that had taken place in the queue.

I've known some pretty intelligent people who've been taken in by this flim-flam. Sometimes I wonder if it's because they're unwitting accomplices in the sense that they want to believe it, rather in the way that as audience members, we want to suspend disbelief when watching a ventriloquist. We are disappointed if we can see his lips move, and consider him good if we can't see the lips move. Or like the stage magician, we know it's trickery but for the purposes of entertainment, don't want to 'see the joins', but to enjoy the spectacle.


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TeeHeeHee
post 30th Nov 2011, 10:40pm
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QUOTE (Alex MacPhee @ 30th Nov 2011, 03:07pm) *
I hadn't heard of Morrison Cross -- You didn't get approached or scammed, did you?

Only for about $12,000 rolleyes.gif


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